REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Reverse implied odds describe the additional money you may lose on later streets when your hand improves but still is not the best hand.
They are essentially the opposite side of implied odds.
Implied odds consider the additional money you may win on later streets if you improve your hand. Reverse implied odds consider the additional money you may lose if you improve but remain behind.
That distinction matters because improving your hand doesn’t necessarily improve your situation. A card can strengthen your hand while also creating the possibility that you commit additional money with a second-best hand.
Reverse implied odds are also different from pot odds. Pot odds measure the price of the decision in front of you. Reverse implied odds consider the potential cost of the decisions that may follow.
WHY YOUR OUTS MAY NOT BE AS VALUABLE AS THEY LOOK
When you are drawing to a hand, counting your outs is only the first step. The more important question is whether those outs will actually produce a hand strong enough to win.
An out is normally described as an unseen card that improves your hand. But improvement alone does not necessarily make that card a clean out, nor does it necessarily mean you will have the winning hand.
A clean out improves your hand without also improving an opponent to a stronger hand, often giving you the winning hand.
A compromised out improves your hand, but may also improve an opponent’s hand even more, leaving you with an improved hand that is still second best.
That distinction is particularly important when considering reverse implied odds.
If you count every apparent out at full value, your probability of improving may be mathematically correct while your estimate of the value of that improvement is not. You may be calculating the probability of making your hand without adequately considering whether that hand will actually be good enough to win.
This becomes increasingly important when several opponents remain in the pot. More players mean more possible holdings to account for, increasing the importance of determining whether your apparent outs are actually clean.
Reverse implied odds therefore add another question to the normal drawing-hand calculation. It isn’t enough to ask how often you will improve.
You also have to consider your hand’s relative strength after you improve.
COMMON REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS SITUATIONS
Reverse implied odds can appear whenever improving your hand does not necessarily mean improving to the best hand. The risk becomes greater when the hand you are trying to make is vulnerable to a stronger version of the same hand.
WEAK FLUSH DRAWS
Suppose you are drawing to a flush without holding the ace of that suit.
Completing the flush certainly improves your hand, but it does not automatically give you the best flush. If an opponent can reasonably hold a higher card of the same suit, some of the cards you are counting as outs may also complete a stronger flush for that opponent.
This creates the problem behind reverse implied odds. The flush card arrives, you make the hand you were drawing to, and that improvement may encourage you to put additional money into the pot.
But if your opponent has made a higher flush, the card you wanted to see has actually created an expensive second-best hand.
DOMINATED PAIRS AND KICKERS
The same principle applies when you are hoping to pair one of your hole cards.
Suppose you hold a weak ace and believe an ace would improve your hand. It will. But if an opponent can reasonably hold a stronger ace, pairing your ace may leave you dominated.
Before the ace arrives, you may have little more than ace-high. After it arrives, you have top pair, and may now be willing to call or make additional bets.
Your hand improved substantially in absolute strength while remaining weak in relative strength.
That is exactly the type of situation reverse implied odds force you to consider.
Multiway Draws
Reverse implied odds become increasingly important in multiway pots because there are more opponent holdings to account for.
A card that improves your hand may also complete a stronger draw, make a higher two-pair combination, complete a better straight or flush, or give another player a redraw to an even stronger hand.
The point isn’t that you should automatically assume someone has you beaten simply because several players remain in the hand. It is that the relative strength of your completed hand becomes more important as the number of possible opponent holdings increases.
This is why simply counting outs can be misleading. The question isn’t only whether a card improves your hand.
The question is what that card does to everyone else’s possible hands as well.
STACK DEPTH CHANGES THE RISK
Reverse implied odds are concerned with money that may be lost after you improve your hand. That makes the amount of money remaining behind an important part of the decision.
When effective stacks are relatively short, the amount you can lose on later streets is naturally limited. Even if you improve to a second-best hand, there may not be enough money remaining to create a significant additional loss.
Deep stacks create a different problem.
The more money that remains behind, the more expensive a second-best hand can become. Completing a flush, making top pair, or improving to another apparently strong hand may lead to additional calls, bets, or raises on later streets. If an opponent has improved to a stronger hand, those additional decisions increase the potential cost of the original call.
This is why the immediate price of a draw does not always describe your total financial exposure.
You may be getting an attractive price to continue right now, but reverse implied odds require you to consider what could happen to the money still behind if you improve.
The relevant question is not simply how much you have to call.
It is also how much more you may be willing, or forced by your own decision process—to put into the pot after making a vulnerable second-best hand.
The deeper the effective stacks, the more important that question can become.
HOW TO ACCOUNT FOR REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS
There is no single formula that tells you exactly how much reverse implied odds should reduce the value of a call. The risk depends on the specific hand, the opponents involved, the board, the effective stacks, and the action that may follow.
Instead, begin with the hand you are trying to make.
If you improve, what will the relative strength of your hand actually be?
Consider whether the cards you are counting as outs are clean or compromised. If an improving card can also complete a stronger hand for an opponent, that card should not automatically be treated as having the same value as an out that is more likely to give you the winning hand.
Then consider the opponents who remain in the hand and the information their actions are providing. Their likely ranges, previous action, playing tendencies, position, and the number of players involved all matter. But so do the board texture and the size of their bets relative to the pot.
For example, some players will make relatively small bets when first to act as a blocking bet, attempting to control the price of the next card or the remaining action. On a board where your apparent out could also complete a stronger hand for that player, the sizing cannot be considered by itself. It has to be evaluated together with the board, the player’s likely range, previous action, tendencies, and everything else you know about the situation.
Sometimes that analysis leads to an important conclusion: even if you hit the card you are hoping for, your hand may still not be good enough.
I’ve folded draws for exactly that reason. The question wasn’t whether I could improve. I believed that even if I did, there was a significant possibility I would be improving to a second-best hand.
That’s when reverse implied odds become much more than a theoretical concept. They affect the decision you’re making right now.
CONSIDER THE MONEY STILL BEHIND
Effective stack sizes matter as well. The more money remaining behind, the greater the potential cost of making a strong but second-best hand and continuing to put money into the pot.
Position and likely future action should also be considered. Improving while out of position against an opponent capable of applying pressure can create a very different situation from improving in position against a player whose actions are easier to evaluate.
None of this means you should automatically fold whenever reverse implied odds exist. It means the probability of improving should not be evaluated in isolation.
The decision begins with the immediate mathematics, but it does not necessarily end there.
Before continuing, consider not only how often you may improve, but the relative strength of the hand you are likely to have when you do—and how much additional money may still be at risk.
CONCLUSION
One of the fundamental ideas in poker is to keep your own decisions as simple as possible while making your opponents’ decisions as difficult as possible.
Reverse implied odds are a good example of what happens when you find yourself on the wrong side of that equation.
You may be facing a decision where the immediate mathematics appears reasonable and several cards can improve your hand. But some of those cards may create another decision rather than solve the one you are facing. You make your hand, your opponent continues applying pressure, and now you have to determine whether the hand you wanted to make is actually strong enough to continue.
That is not necessarily a reason to fold. It is a reason to understand the situation you may be creating before you enter it.
Poker decisions become considerably easier when you think beyond the card you want to see and consider what happens after it arrives. If improving your hand could leave you facing substantial action with a vulnerable second-best hand, that possibility belongs in the decision you are making now.
Know what you are getting yourself into.
Sometimes the most expensive card in poker is the one you were hoping to see.