You have pocket 8s, so what is the probability that someone has a m over pair, pre-flop with 9 players having been dealt in? It’s 26%. How did I get to that number? I used Excel. But you can’t do that at the table, so here’s a quick formula that gets close enough.
However, here are 6 pairs higher than 8’s. There are 9 players dealt in the hand. 9 players X 6 higher pairs = 54/2 = 27%, pretty damn close to exact.
Why is Over Card Probabilities Important?
Let’s say you are in the Cut Off with those 8s. There is a raise from UTG+1, and two callers in front of you. Being able to calculate the probability of an over-pair to your 8s helps you make the best decision possible. Right?
Earlier, in Pre-Flop Play I talked about having a plan for the hand, so let’s think one through for those 8’s. We know there was a raise and one call, so far. You still have the Button, SB, and BB, plus the UTG player to act.
While we have visions of flopping a set and winning a huge pot. The probability of flopping a set is 7.5 to 1 (12%) Which puts a damper on that. Next, we need to know what is the probability that an over-card will come on the flop, potentially counterfeiting our 8s. The answer is 85%. If by some miracle you get past the flop, then there is a 50% chance of an over-card on both the turn and river.
Again, I am not saying to play or not play the pocket 8’s in this particular hand. However, I am saying to have an understanding of Over Card Probability, so you can make the best decision possible. Below are a couple of charts to help understand Poker Strategy – Over-Card Probabilities.
Math – The Underlying Form Of Poker Math
A sound Poker Strategy must include the underlying form of Poker Math. Over-card probabilities is a portion of that, however, there are countless aspects to the math of poker. I hope you study the charts, graphs, and all the content we have here regarding Poker Math. There is more to come.
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